Shock poll: Donald Trump leads Jeb Bush 26-20% … in Florida
By Mitch Perry -
For the first time this year, Donald Trump tops a state poll of GOP presidential candidates in Florida.
A St. Pete Polls survey released on Wednesday shows the New York businessman with 26 percent support, with Jeb Bush in second place with 20 percent.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is in
third place with 12 percent, and Marco Rubio is in fourth place with 10
percent. He’s followed by Dr. Ben Carson at 5 percent, Ted Cruz and John
Kasich at 4 percent, and Rand Paul at 3 percent. 16 percent are unsure
or are supporting another candidate not named in the survey.
When
it comes to the GOP Senate race, however, there is no clear
front-runner at all, some 13 months before the primary election.
Among those who actually have an
opinion, Pinellas County congressman David Jolly gets 10 percent
support, with Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Jacksonville
area Congressman Ron DeSantis right behind him, essentially tied at 9
percent. Lopez-Cantera gets 9.2 percent support, DeSantis 8.9 percent.
Former combat veteran and businessman
Todd Wilcox gets 5 percent support (5.2%), tying him with North Florida
congressman Jeff Miller (4.9%), who is not officially in the race.
But an overwhelming 61 percent say they are undecided.
That’s a change from a similar poll taken two weeks ago, where Jolly garnered 22 percent support, 10 percent more than Miller.
In terms of the reliability of this survey, Matt Florell of St. Pete Polls said
his firm has had an impressive run the past three years, with several
of its polls coming with the margin of error with final election
results. The polling “almost always predicted the eventual winner of the
election,” Florell said, citing the recent Jacksonville mayoral
election and many of the general election races in 2014.
“But related to this specific poll,” he added, “I would refer back to our 2014 Democratic Primary poll and how close we were to the final results for both governor and attorney general.”
The poll of 1,902 Florida likely
Republican primary voters was conducted from Saturday, July 18, 2015 to
Tuesday, July 28, 2015. It was made up of a sampling of registered
Republican party voters from the state of Florida, and has a 2.2% margin
of error at a 95% confidence level.
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