How Big a Third-Party Threat Is Trump?

National Primary Survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters

Conducted July 28-29, 2015

By Rasmussen Reports

1* Have you ever voted for an independent candidate not affiliated with either major party?

2* If Donald Trump is not chosen as the Republican presidential nominee and runs as a third party candidate, how likely are you to vote for him next year?

NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
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Shock Poll: 36 percent of GOP Voters Likely to Vote for Trump If He Runs Third Party. 
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Monday, August 03, 2015

If “The Donald” loses the Republican presidential nomination and runs as a third-party candidate, he definitely could put a crimp in GOP hopes to reclaim the White House.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 29% of Likely U.S. Voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for Trump if he is not chosen as the GOP nominee and runs as a third party candidate. But that includes only 14% who say they are Very Likely to vote for him. Sixty-eight percent (68%) say they are unlikely to vote for the billionaire developer if he runs as a third-party presidential candidate, with 51% who say it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Worrisome for Republicans, however, is the finding that over a third (36%) of Likely GOP Voters say they are likely to vote for Trump if he’s a third-party candidate, with 18% who are Very Likely to do so. One-in-three (33%) voters who are not affiliated with either major party also are likely Trump voters, including 16% who say they are Very Likely to vote for him if he runs third-party.
Even 19% of Democrats describe themselves as likely Trump voters, although that includes just nine percent (9%) who say they are Very Likely to vote that way.

Rasmussen Reports spokesman Leon Sculti is available for media comment on these poll results. Call x205 or send e-mail to leon.sculti@rasmussenreports.com to schedule now.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html 
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